U.S. More Conservative Than Obama's 2008 Win Suggests
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Peter Roff
US News and World Report
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Liberal glee over Barack Obama's election was accompanied in some
quarters by smart people who claim to know something about U.S.
politics engaged in a smug, even triumphal dance of joy over the defeat
of American conservatism.
Gary Kamiya, the executive editor of Salon.com, equated the voters
to "dogs" and conservative policy proscriptions to "dog food" when he
wrote in a post-election essay that "The painful truth for
conservatives is that the dogs aren't eating their dog food—and every
national trend indicates that they will never eat it again."
Explaining that the ouster of conservatives from Washington "has
been a long time coming," Kamiya opined that the road ahead for the
Republicans presented "a wrenching choice: remain true to its
increasingly irrelevant and rejected ideology and fade into political
insignificance, or remake itself as essentially a more moderate version
of the Democratic Party."
What a difference six months make.
The most recent Gallup poll on national ideological leanings,
released August 14, shows quite clearly that, while not a majority of
the country, today "more Americans consider themselves conservative
than liberal," something that is a far cry from the collapse of
conservatism analysis Kamiya and others advanced in the wake of the
2008 election.
In the new survey, conservatives outnumber liberals in all 50
states while liberals outnumber conservatives, and this is no great
surprise, in the District of Columbia. More to the point, the lead is
statistically significant in 47 states while being inside the margin of
error in only three: Hawaii, Vermont, and Massachusetts.
The map shown here breaks the data down by gradations, with states
where the conservatives' advantage over liberals is greater than 25
percentage points defined as "Most Conservative." Net conservatism
registering 20 to 25 points is defined as "More Conservative"; from 10
to 19 points as "Somewhat Conservative"; and from 1 to 9 points as
"Less Conservative." Ominously for President Obama, the states that are
"Somewhat," "More," and "Most Conservative" resemble a map showing a
victory in the Electoral College.
In terms of party identification, the Democrats are still in better
shape than the Republicans. The president's party has a significant
advantage over the Republicans in 30 states while the GOP leads in only
four. But party identification is quite a different thing than
ideological affinity.
Voters will often cross party lines to vote for a candidate whom
they like better, as Reagan's 1984 landslide over Walter Mondale
reminds us; it is very rare, however, that a self-described liberal
will vote for a candidate viewed as a conservative and even rarer still
that a self-described conservative will vote for the candidate who is
perceived as the more liberal of the two major party nominees on a
general election ballot.
Click here to read the full story.
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